Jail is justice — but Brazil’s far right is far from finished.

Jair Bolsonaro once boasted that his political career had three possible endings: “jail, death, or victory.” This week, Brazil’s supreme court handed him the first of those, convicting him of plotting a military coup to block Lula’s 2022 win and sentencing him to 27 years.

It is an extraordinary moment — the first time a Brazilian president has been found guilty of trying to strangle democracy itself. Bolsonaro, who rode paranoia, conspiracy, and cruelty into office, finally faces accountability. His downfall should be celebrated.

But let’s be clear: his imprisonment is not the cure. The cancer he spread — Bolsonarismo — still courses through Brazilian society.

A movement bigger than the man

Bolsonaro was never just a politician. He was a vehicle for rage, prejudice, and authoritarian fantasies that were already alive in the country’s body politic. Evangelical churches, agribusiness bosses, resentful middle-class conservatives, and security forces found in him the strongman they craved.

Those millions of votes do not vanish because their champion sits in a cell. Tens of thousands still take to the streets in his name. As columnist Thaís Oyama put it: Bolsonaro may be finished, but Bolsonarismo will march on.

The right is regrouping

The 2026 election is already being framed as Lula’s last stand against an extremist machine that refuses to die. Possible heirs are circling: his senator son Flávio, his wife Michelle — adored by evangelicals and already treated like a political saint — and São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has embraced Bolsonaro’s anti-court paranoia to rally the faithful.

None have Bolsonaro’s peculiar mix of clownishness and menace, but all are willing to weaponize his playbook: contempt for democracy, scapegoating of minorities, glorification of violence. If the right unites, they could still return to power.

The global far right’s fingerprints

And hovering over all this is Donald Trump, who denounced Bolsonaro’s conviction as a “witch hunt” and punished Brazil with tariffs to prove his loyalty to the fallen ally. This is no coincidence. The global far right sees Brazil as a laboratory, and it will pour money, disinformation, and influence into keeping the flame alive.

This is not Brazilian politics in isolation. It is part of a coordinated assault on democracy across continents.

Lula vs. the machine

On the left, Lula prepares to fight for a fourth term. Guilherme Boulos, his likely heir, rightly warns that Bolsonaro’s jailing does not erase the social base of mass fascism that has been cultivated over years — a base built on bigotry, lies, and fear. Pretending it will melt away would be delusional.

The task now is not just to celebrate Bolsonaro’s fall, but to dismantle the conditions that allowed him to rise: the unholy alliance of fundamentalist churches, extractive capital, and military nostalgia. Without tackling that ecosystem, another Bolsonaro will step forward.

A victory, not yet a cure

Bolsonaro behind bars is a victory for Brazilian democracy. But it is only a start. His movement thrives because inequality, despair, and institutional cowardice gave it oxygen. Unless the left can confront those roots — with courage as well as policy — the far right will keep mutating, keep mobilizing, and keep threatening the republic.

Bolsonaro’s career has ended in disgrace. Brazil’s battle with Bolsonarismo has only begun.