In an era where diplomacy is increasingly performed like reality television, former U.S. President Donald Trump has once again taken centre stage — this time by slapping a sweeping 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports. The justification? Not trade imbalances, nor labor violations, nor digital sovereignty. No, this sanction is born of personal grievance: Jair Bolsonaro, the former Brazilian president and Trump ally, is on trial.

Trump, who described Bolsonaro as a “patriot,” called the proceedings a “witch hunt,” and directed his ire not at Brazil’s political opponents, but at Brazil itself. The result is a form of economic retaliation rarely seen in democratic relationships: an attempt to bend another country’s judiciary through financial pressure.

And yet, in a twist of irony, Trump’s action may do the exact opposite of what he intends. By interfering so overtly in Brazil’s internal legal affairs, he may have inadvertently strengthened the very institutions Bolsonaro spent years trying to undermine.

When tariffs become political theatre

At first glance, the move seems lifted from a geopolitical satire. A former president of one of the world’s largest democracies imposes punitive tariffs on another for the sole reason that its courts are holding one of his political allies accountable. That Brazil is being punished not for attacking democracy, but for upholding it, only deepens the paradox.

While the official White House statement claims concerns over digital sovereignty and “political censorship,” Trump’s own Truth Social posts tell a clearer story: this is a personal vendetta disguised as policy. It has little to do with economics and everything to do with symbolism — with reasserting loyalty to a global fraternity of strongmen, and with securing points among Bolsonaro’s support base in Florida ahead of the 2024 U.S. election rematch.

But international politics is not a fan club. And Brazil is not Mar-a-Lago South.

A region allergic to foreign meddling

Latin America has a long and painful memory of U.S. interference — from coups to economic sabotage, from CIA scripts to IMF conditionalities. This latest move, while less bloody, fits into that historical continuum. But times have changed. Brazil in 2025 is not Chile in 1973.

Trump’s intervention could trigger a classic Latin American response: nationalist pushback. Even among conservatives and centrists who may have supported Bolsonaro in the past, the idea of a foreign leader dictating terms to Brazil’s courts is politically unpalatable.

In this sense, Trump’s action functions less as a show of strength and more as a diplomatic blunder. By attempting to interfere with Bolsonaro’s trial, he reframes it — not as a political persecution, but as a legal proceeding worth defending on sovereign grounds.

Bolsonaro as liability, not victim

More consequentially, Trump’s endorsement may backfire for Bolsonaro himself. The former Brazilian president already faces a host of serious charges, ranging from falsifying vaccine records to inciting a January 8th-style insurrection. His legal battles have been accompanied by a growing weariness among voters, including in key right-wing sectors like agribusiness and evangelical communities.

Now, with tariffs threatening Brazil’s exports — and potentially provoking retaliatory measures — Bolsonaro’s image risks becoming less that of a political martyr and more of a geopolitical liability.

When soy farmers in Mato Grosso or aircraft engineers at Embraer begin to feel the economic impact of a tariff war born out of Bolsonaro’s personal legal troubles, loyalty may shift. And the narrative — that Bolsonaro is “bad for business” — could take root faster than any ideological defense.

Brazil’s institutions, tested and tempered

The timing is also crucial. Brazil’s democratic institutions, once battered and exhausted, have been gradually regaining public trust. Lula da Silva’s return to power may be polarizing, but his administration has largely respected the independence of the judiciary. The Bolsonaro trials are unfolding within the framework of Brazilian law, not under emergency decrees or partisan tribunals.

Trump’s attempt to delegitimize these processes from afar may, paradoxically, increase their credibility. After all, if the case against Bolsonaro weren’t serious, why would a foreign leader need to intervene?

There is also the risk, for Trump, that this episode will deepen global skepticism about the U.S.’s commitment to the rule of law — particularly at a moment when American democracy itself remains under intense scrutiny.

A foreign policy of tantrums

Trump’s track record on foreign affairs has always oscillated between brute transactionalism and improvised drama. His administration oversaw both peace treaties and trade wars, sanctions and selfies. But this latest act — imposing economic penalties over a foreign criminal trial — marks a new precedent, even for him.

It raises uncomfortable questions: Is U.S. foreign policy now guided by the personal grievances of former leaders? Are democratic alliances transactional only as long as ideological affinities remain intact? What happens when political bromances override bilateral stability?

The unintended gift

In the end, Trump may have given Brazil something it didn’t ask for — and perhaps didn’t even know it needed: clarity. His tariffs offer a stark reminder that defending democracy means resisting not only internal threats, but also external ones. And that sovereignty, in the 21st century, will be tested not just by coups and bullets, but by tariffs, tweets, and narcissistic tantrums.

Whether Bolsonaro’s trial ends in conviction or acquittal, the message has already been delivered: Brazil’s democracy, fragile as it may be, still belongs to Brazilians — not to former presidents, and certainly not to foreign ones.

So yes — obrigado, Donald. Your interference may have just reminded a divided country why the rule of law matters.

Postscript: Somewhere, Steve Bannon is probably grinning. But down here, under the southern sun, the joke might be on him.

Because the more Trump screams “witch hunt,” the more we remember what Bolsonaro really is: not a martyr, but a man who burned his country for power. And no tariff will ever change that.